President Nicolas Sarkozy’s conservative party suffered huge losses to the left (socialist party and its allies, especially the greens) in last Sunday’s runoff elections for regional councils. Labor coalitions won in all but three regions (Alsace, Reunion Island, and French Guyana), in most cases by large margins. This is what I see:

  • The result –the governing conservative party loses to labor– is almost exactly identical to the outcome the last time regional elections were held, in 2004, when the conservatives also were in power.
  • If voters sent a disapproving message to the conservatives, that message expressed:
    • disappointment in the lack of change promised by Sarkozy as candidate, especially greater opportunities for the average person; under Sarkozy’s presidency, these people have stagnated or fallen behind, while the well-to-do have prospered;
    • worry about the future –especially the future solvency– of retirement funds, a sensitive point even for young people;
    • preoccupation with insecurity, whether economic (job loss) or physical (crime), which would explain why some conservative voters turned in these election to the far-right National Front and its anti-”immigrant” party line.
  • Left-wing candidates –the incumbents– could campaign on their record and convince voters based on facts on the ground. In five regions, the conservative leader was a cabinet minister “parachuted” in from Paris; this top-down thinking might have put off voters. In other words, in regional elections French voters preferred leaders with strong regional connections.