European demographics
Russell Shorto’s article in the June 29 New York Times Magazine offers a great overview on European demographics, particularly low birth rates. Four takeaway points:
European demographics are multifaceted
A “fertility fault line” divides northern and southern Europe. The really low fertility rates (under 1.3) are found in Italy, Spain, and Greece.
Apart from this divide, Germany and Austria have a rooted trend of childlessness: among German women born in 1960, 27.8% reportedly have no children.
Finally, former Communist bloc countries that have become EU members have low birth rates and comparatively lower life expectancy.
Working moms don’t produce low birth rates
Across Europe, working mothers tend to have more children than stay-at-home moms. Shorto tries to show that it’s harder to combine work and family in southern European countries.
America is an exception
When I was born, the American population hadn’t yet reached 200 million; it recently passed the 300-million mark and continues to grow. The combination of immigration and a high birth rate set America apart from the situation in Europe.
Is a growing population necessary for economic growth?
Population growth is driven by birth rates and by immigration. As the former declines, some commentators foresee a significant uptick in immigration.
Others conclude that population growth isn’t a precondition for economic growth. More than boosting births, these commentators favor promoting employment among older workers. Shorto reports a survey by Adecco that only 60% of French men aged 50-64 are in the workforce. This figure might be skewed by the possibility for many French workers to retire at age 60, but it does point to a reservoir of underemployed workers.