Paul from Paris

Russell Shorto’s article in the June 29 New York Times Magazine offers a great overview on European demographics, particularly low birth rates. Four takeaway points:

European demographics are multifaceted

A “fertility fault line” divides northern and southern Europe. The really low fertility rates (under 1.3) are found in Italy, Spain, and Greece.

Apart from this divide, Germany and Austria have a rooted trend of childlessness: among German women born in 1960, 27.8% reportedly have no children.

Finally, former Communist bloc countries that have become EU members have low birth rates and comparatively lower life expectancy.

Working moms don’t produce low birth rates

Across Europe, working mothers tend to have more children than stay-at-home moms. Shorto tries to show that it’s harder to combine work and family in southern European countries.

America is an exception

When I was born, the American population hadn’t yet reached 200 million; it recently passed the 300-million mark and continues to grow. The combination of immigration and a high birth rate set America apart from the situation in Europe.

Is a growing population necessary for economic growth?

Population growth is driven by birth rates and by immigration. As the former declines, some commentators foresee a significant uptick in immigration.

Others conclude that population growth isn’t a precondition for economic growth. More than boosting births, these commentators favor promoting employment among older workers. Shorto reports a survey by Adecco that only 60% of French men aged 50-64 are in the workforce. This figure might be skewed by the possibility for many French workers to retire at age 60, but it does point to a reservoir of underemployed workers.

In a “Talk of the Town” piece (“Stars on Stars”, The New Yorker, May 22, 2006, pp. 28-29), Lauren Collins recalls a short exchange at a party between Ralph Nader and Steve Wynn:

“Steve, before I forget, will you give me your card?” Nader said.
“I don’t have one, but I’m an easy guy to find,” Wynn answered.

There’s ambiguity in the exchange. Maybe Wynn is politely telling Nader that the conversation won’t continue after the party. Maybe Wynn doesn’t carry business cards at social occasions. Maybe Wynn’s refusal to carry business cards signals secrecy, mystery, and power; according to urban legend, partners at management consultancy Bain & Company didn’t carry business cards in that company’s early days. But perhaps Wynn really does mean exactly what he says: that he’s easy to find.

Being easy to find isn’t the same as being available at all hours or accepting interruptions at any time. And being easy to find shouldn’t open the door to spam or unwelcome telephone solicitations. Being easy to find means that a caller can find the right door and ring a bell. Whether the door will open is another matter.

It’s getting harder to be easy to find. Despite the proliferation of cell phones and e-mail, contact details often are jealously guarded and cloaked in secrecy. On many web sites, basic contact information, such as a general or switchboard phone number, is buried clicks beneath the home page.

Wouldn’t it be great if more of us were easier to find?